Discussing the housing bubble in China
- Posted on [March 8, 2010 ] @ 2:02 am
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Today we met with Stephen Green, Head of Economic Research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. One of the biggest topics we covered was the housing bubble in China. While Stephen agrees that a bubble exists, he doesn’t think it will have the same impact as the one we recently experienced in the US. He argued that you can’t compare the US bubble of the last decade with the one here today because this is essentially China’s industrial revolution, where there is such tremendous growth that a 10-20% correction would have a negligible impact on the economy. Other arguments he cited were the continued urbanization of China and the fact owners put over 30% down. Therefore, a correction would have to be huge in order to wipe out home owner equity and impact the financial system here.